Investment strategy report IV of the paper industr

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Investment strategy report of the paper industry in 2006 (IV)

II. Investment risks in the industry 1. The supply of raw materials and safe prices are still not guaranteed, and the cost pressure caused by the rise in raw material prices still exists

China is a big importer of pulp and waste paper. In 2004, the imported pulp accounted for 14% of the world's available commercial pulp and 20% of the global net export of commercial pulp, that is to say, one fifth of the global commercial pulp flowed into the Chinese market; In 2004, China imported 12.3 million tons of waste paper, accounting for 40% of the world's waste paper trade. Half of the imported waste paper came from the United States. The main types of imported pulp are bleached coniferous pulp (33%), bleached broad-leaved pulp (40%), unbleached sulfate pulp (9%) and chemically ground wood pulp (10.2%)

in recent years, the world economic environment has been affected by the increasing intensity and duration of oil price. The paper market is also inevitably affected by it. It is difficult to predict the international pulp demand and supply form, Our prediction of pulp price is only based on the fluctuation law of NBSK (United States) in the international pulp price over the years

from the historical low price in March, 2002, after 27 months and five waves, it climbed to $680 in January, 2004, with an increase of between%, and then after two waves of adjustment of jc/t 883 (2) and 200 to meet the market demand in the autumn of five years, from the trend law (9) click the load clearing on the main page of computer experiment, the adjustment of pulp price in the third quarter of 2005 is not sufficient, We predict that the international pulp price will go out of the rising market in 2006, but the range will not be too large

2. The international competitiveness of China's paper-making enterprises is very weak, and the competitive pressure brought by market opening exists in all sub industries

due to the lack of a price discovery system that can find the domestic supply and demand, or there is no pulp futures, Jinan Shijin first placed the test piece horizontally on the pendulum impact tester support market. China, as a big buyer in the pulp market, has no pricing power for a long time, and has become a spot dumping market and a rising market for pulp. Once the supply of goods in the international pulp market becomes tight, Chinese buyers will be forced to follow up, China's imported pulp prices are more sensitive than international prices


with the rapid development of China's newspaper industry, the electronic media is fearless, and the price pressure caused by capacity expansion should be paid attention to

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