Whether the new energy vehicle market can achieve the expected goals and how it will break the situation
"if China follows the Toyota model, I think there is no way out, because we are not an order of magnitude." Ouyangminggao, a professor in the Department of automotive engineering of Tsinghua University, made it clear about this problem
as we all know, the new energy vehicle industry experienced several ups and downs in 2016. The publication of the investigation results of the fraud and subsidy incident led to multiple market turmoil. At the same time, the subsidy policy was wavering and difficult to implement. In addition, the release of the energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap, the successive issuance of new energy vehicle production enterprise licenses and the acceleration of cross-border vehicle manufacturing by interconnected enterprises, This makes the whole new energy automobile industry filled with an atmosphere of mixed ambivalence of hesitation and wait-and-see and torrent courage. Now the end of the year is approaching, can the new energy vehicle market achieve the expected goals, and how will it break the situation
adhere to the line of pure electric drive
development of "three modernizations" of new energy
at present, China's new energy automobile industry is in a transitional period of development, and the development of domestic automobile power electrification has experienced twists and turns, and is gradually entering a good situation. The recently released roadmap for energy saving and new energy vehicle technology has re classified hybrid vehicles as one of the key directions of future industrial development, and has once again triggered a long-standing discussion about "betting" on pure electric drive as the core technology route - more directly, whether the hybrid technology represented by Toyota, which has obvious cost advantages and maturity, is suitable for the promotion of new energy vehicles in China
"if China follows the Toyota model, I think there is no way out, because we are not an order of magnitude." Regarding this issue, ouyangminggao, a professor of Automotive Engineering Department of Tsinghua University, made it clear in his speech at the forum that China's new energy vehicles should adhere to the development route of pure electric drive. In his opinion, China's model is to take the lead in making pure electric vehicles, and drive the battery industry to become the largest in the world through the scale expansion of pure electric vehicles. "Now we have achieved the largest battery industry in the world, I won't say the strongest, and we are among the top three". On this basis, we will use pure electric vehicles as a platform to make plug-in hybrid power, which is just the opposite path to the first promotion of hybrid power represented by Toyota, The advantage is that "during this period, the national subsidies can be used to gradually enhance competitiveness, and the battery advantages of PEU compared with PCU can be used to significantly reduce costs and improve service life"
ouyangminggao also gave his own interpretation of the roadmap for energy saving and new energy vehicle technology, and believed that the core of new energy vehicles is "three modernizations": power electrification, body lightweight and vehicle intelligence. These "three modernizations" have to be integrated with the other three technical trends respectively - power electrification, integrated low-carbon energy, lightweight integrated manufacturing, and intelligent integrated transportation, so as to realize the technical upgrading of deep electrification of power, lightweight of body chassis, and intelligent integrated transportation
"at present, we all talk about electrification and intelligence, but the lightweight of car body is also a technological change as important as the two. What is connected with it is the ecological manufacturing, that is, all the contents of industry 4.0 are related to the lightweight of car body." There is a lot of attention paid to the electrification of power and the intellectualization of the whole vehicle, while Ouyang Minggao emphasized that the lightweight of the body has not been paid attention to. As for the trend of lightweight body, Ouyang Minggao pointed out that this technological innovation is not only the change of body materials, but also the subversion of chassis structure and manufacturing process. At the same time, the concepts of personalized body customization and artificial intelligence manufacturing are also emerging, which makes the development of body lightweight technology closely combined with the whole ecology of automobile manufacturing. Taking the lightweight and carbon fiber BMW I3 as an example, he pointed out that "the traditional load-bearing body has no chassis. Now the chassis has appeared, and the body is rebuilt, not necessarily the load-bearing body. The materials and manufacturing processes of the body have all changed, and all the processes of the car factory will undergo revolutionary changes in the next 20 to 30 years"
with regard to the intelligentization of vehicles, ouyangming said that autonomous vehicle and car couplets are the technical directions of two dimensions, but they should be developed in combination. In his opinion, the biggest goal of car service is to achieve active safety. It is expected to achieve conditional automatic driving by 2020 and highly automatic driving by 2025
three significant effects
the formation of depression effect
when the development route takes the lead, the industrial policy must follow. At present, the relevant policies of China's new energy industry have been turbulent for several times, and the whole vehicle, battery, charging pile and other fields are suffering from this. In view of the current development of the new energy automobile industry, vice president of the China Association for European Economic and technological cooperation Liqingwen, chairman of the autonomous automobile industry branch, said: "at present, the new energy automobile industry still needs strong policies, correct, effective, truly problem-solving, systematic, stable and predictable policies. If we leave these policies at this stage, the previous efforts may be abandoned halfway, or the current good situation may be lost."
according to Li Qingwen, the technology of new energy vehicles is productivity, while industrial policy is the supporting condition. "Only with the supporting conditions required by productivity can productivity become a real production capacity and become the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle industry". For some negative comments on the current new energy vehicle industrial policy made by the public and the industry, Li Qingwen believes that it is biased to blindly criticize and question, because at least three achievements can be seen in the industrial policy
first, the new energy industrial policy makes the sales of electric vehicles and new energy vehicles in China occupy the first place in the world as traditional vehicles. Whether such an objective reality can not be determined, "in any case, the struggle and efforts of the whole industry can not be negated by a word or a simple denial". Li Qingwen pointed out that due to the historical reasons for the low starting point of the automobile industry and the time required for technology accumulation and product accumulation, the new energy automobile industry can not become the strongest in the world from the beginning. The real development path is to be big first and then strong
second, the new energy industrial policy has prompted the emergence of a number of new enterprises of new energy vehicles and electric vehicles with vitality in China. In the course of more than a decade, they have grown to have a place in the global market. For example, on the premise that the market determines the allocation of resources, BYD has developed to today's BYD through self innovation. If there is no market environment for the development of electric vehicles in China built by policies, BYD cannot become an enterprise with strategic status and importance in the world automobile industry, especially in the new energy automobile industry; Without the development of China's electric vehicle industry, it is impossible to produce a Chinese battery enterprise represented by Mingde era that can compete with world-class battery enterprises in the battery field
third, the new energy industrial policy has made China a resource depression for new energy vehicles and electric vehicles in the world. All kinds of new energy vehicle industry resources in the world have begun to gather in China. Whether in Europe or North America, the flow of technology, talents and capital around electric vehicles and new energy vehicles to China has produced a depression effect on resource agglomeration. Li Qingwen bluntly said that many automobile enterprises in developed countries, including Volkswagen, are undergoing drastic strategic transformation, one of which is to increase their layout in China. "At present, I see that the flow of resources and various elements of the world's automobile industry to China is accelerating."
lack of systematic policies
industry development needs forward-looking planning
"Today, we have such a foundation. We should be glad that China is not backward in this round of world industrial revolution. We have made a lot of investment, accumulation, achievements and outputs in technology. We cannot deny the efforts and achievements made by Chinese engineers and technicians in accordance with the guidance of the national industrial policy and national strategy." However, while affirming the importance and necessity of the new energy industrial policy, Li Qingwen also pointed out that the relationship between the guidance and operability of the industrial policy in the past was not well sorted out, and the systematicness of the policy was flawed
in his opinion, the industrial guidance was well done in the early stage, but there were too many randomness, temporariness and fragmentation in the operation of industrial policies, and many non industrial demand factors had a strong interference, such as the dislocation of central and local policies. The subsidy policy is a typical example. The subsidy policy of the central government is very clear, but the local government has no plan or schedule when issuing the corresponding detailed rules, which leads to the enterprises' anxiety and helplessness
this view was endorsed by Yanchen, CEO of Shenzhen Tengshi New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., a representative in the field of new energy vehicles. This year, the new energy vehicle market has been affected by the "fraud compensation case", and the industrial development has changed from the initial "blowout" to "stability". With the publication of the fraud compensation results, the state has also said that it will re plan the market, the most important of which is the adjustment of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. Yan Chen said that the new energy vehicle policy has not been implemented yet, and the development of the enterprise brand market has been hindered. "Is it the product itself, the brand or the marketing that causes the poor product sales?" While reflecting, she said frankly that the long time of "sterilization" has also had a certain impact on Tengshi's new car plan
"industrial policies must be predictable, systematic and continuous. Some policies are not issued when they should be issued, and when they are issued, they are particularly impatient, which makes the industrial chain of the whole industry disordered. Major mistakes are inevitable in the process of disorder, and individual enterprises will make mistakes when major mistakes occur." Liqingwen stressed that although the mistakes were made by enterprises, policy makers should reflect, "the production and sales of new energy vehicles have risen rapidly since 2015. At this time, there have been major mistakes criticized by people. It is precisely at this time that we have grown up rapidly, which is a contradiction."
in this regard, he suggested that the introduction of industrial policies should first increase systematization, and second, make policy expectations. For example, the recent technology roadmap has achieved guiding, leading and forward-looking planning and information guidance, "In addition, the new energy automobile industry is the first to enter by private enterprises and emerging enterprises, while the electronic universal testing machine of non-state-owned large enterprises is mainly used to test nylon, plastic, leather, metal, rubber, woven fabric and other materials. Now it is these enterprise intelligent new technology industries that are in the front, whether they are batteries, motors, electronic controls, charging piles, so the industrial policy is also very important from this perspective."
decentralized layout of charging piles
risks and opportunities coexist
for the upstream enterprises of the new energy automobile industry chain, 2016 is undoubtedly a turbulent year. Whether it is the swing of subsidy policies, the adjustment of battery and vehicle access threshold, etc., directly affect the strategic layout of enterprises
the charging field, which plays an important role in the whole industrial chain of new energy vehicles, now has as many as 100 charging facility enterprises competing in the market. For the future development trend of charging piles, can the large-scale establishment of charging piles effectively alleviate the charging problems? In this regard, the state